Regions
Where capital is moving: 13 investable regions and their top 36 countries scored on economic momentum, capital flows, market strength, geopolitics and valuation, with currency outlooks for USD, EUR and GBP investors.
Regions ranked by regime score
| # | Region | Regime | Score | Economy | Capital flows | Geopolitical risk | Currency 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan | Neutral (Bullish tilt) | +27 | Expanding | Inflows increasing | Moderate | ↑ |
| 2 | United States | Neutral (Bullish tilt) | +24 | Accelerating | Inflows increasing | Moderate | ↓ |
| 3 | Canada | Neutral (Balanced) | +19 | Expanding | Inflows increasing | High | ↑ |
| 4 | South Korea & Taiwan | Neutral (Balanced) | +19 | Accelerating | Stable | High | ↑ |
| 5 | Latin America | Neutral (Balanced) | +9 | Expanding | Stable | Moderate | ↑ / ↕ |
| 6 | United Kingdom | Neutral (Balanced) | +5 | Expanding | Outflows increasing | Moderate | → / ↑ |
| 7 | Southeast Asia (ASEAN) | Neutral (Balanced) | −2 | Accelerating | Outflows increasing | Moderate | → / ↑ |
| 8 | Australia & New Zealand | Neutral (Balanced) | −7 | Slowing | Outflows increasing | Low | ↑ |
| 9 | Eurozone | Neutral (Balanced) | −8 | Expanding | Stable | High | ↑ |
| 10 | Sub-Saharan Africa | Neutral (Balanced) | −8 | Expanding | Outflows increasing | Moderate | ↑ |
| 11 | China & Hong Kong | Neutral (Balanced) | −19 | Expanding | Stable | High | ↑ |
| 12 | India | Neutral (Bearish tilt) | −27 | Accelerating | Outflows increasing | Moderate | ↓ |
| 13 | Gulf / GCC | Neutral (Bearish tilt) | −36 | Contracting | Outflows increasing | Critical | → |
Japan, US and Canada lead a Neutral world; India and the Gulf trail on outflows
Regime: Neutral (all 13 regions Neutral, scores +27 to -36; two bullish and two bearish tilts), Expanding world economy – developed markets with rising inflows lead, while energy importers and regions facing outflows lag.
What changed
This is the first weekly reading of the global scorecard, so there are no prior scores or regimes to compare against.
Economy and markets
The IMF sees world growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with global inflation sticky at 4.7% in 2026. The ranking runs: Japan (+27), United States (+24), Canada (+19), South Korea & Taiwan (+19), Latin America (+9), United Kingdom (+5), Southeast Asia (-2), Australia & New Zealand (-7), Eurozone (-8), Sub-Saharan Africa (-8), China & Hong Kong (-19), India (-27) and Gulf/GCC (-36). The top three pair positive market momentum with inflows; the bottom three trail MSCI ACWI by 5-9 points over three months.
Capital flows and rotation
The US and Canada sit in the Leading quadrant, and Japan has the strongest flow score (+60). BofA/EPFR data show $55.6bn into global equity funds in the week to 21 October, led by tech ($18.8bn), after $17.7bn into EM funds the prior week. Yet the IIF recorded $26.3bn of EM portfolio outflows in September, led by South Korean equities, and India has the weakest flow score (-86).
Currency
Fed hawkishness under Chair Warsh (a September hike to 3.75-4.00%, with a December move about 70% priced) contrasts with a forecaster consensus that the dollar weakens in 2027. BoJ normalisation makes the yen the G10 outperformer, while the PBoC caps yuan moves. Oil above $100 splits emerging currencies: exporters (NGN, COP, MYR, GCC pegs) are cushioned, while importers (INR, KES, GHS) are squeezed. See the heatmap for how these moves affect returns for USD-, EUR- and GBP-based investors.
Risks and what to watch
Geopolitical risk is Critical for the GCC and High for Canada, South Korea & Taiwan, the Eurozone and China & Hong Kong. Key dates: FOMC on 27-28 October, the UK Autumn Budget on 28 October, the ECB and US Q3 GDP on 29 October, the BoJ on 30 October and the US midterm elections on 3 November.
Educational information, not investment advice. Scores are model outputs, not forecasts.
Countries by region
- United States
- Eurozone: Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy, Spain
- United Kingdom
- Japan
- Canada
- Australia & New Zealand: Australia, New Zealand
- China & Hong Kong: China, Hong Kong
- India
- South Korea & Taiwan: Taiwan, South Korea
- Southeast Asia (ASEAN): Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam
- Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia
- Gulf / GCC: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman
- Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire
Source: Sonsero Regions weekly snapshot 2026-10-25 (market data from TradingView; IMF, central bank and fund-flow research). Scores and regimes are rules-based descriptions of conditions, not investment advice.