Commodities & metals
Commodities & metals: Gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper. Regime, heat score, performance, opportunities, signals and strategies for this investment category, refreshed weekly.
Commodities & metals: Bear regime, heat score −31
Investment category #8 of 10. Average move −8.6% over 1 month and −2.1% over 3 months; 25% of its assets trade above their 200-day average. Investor interest: Medium-high; quant signal potential: Very high.
What we watch: Futures curves, inventories, dollar, COT, supply/demand. Risk-off warning signs: Falling demand, adverse inventory trends, sharp price reversals.
| Asset | Price | 1 month | 3 months | 1 year | Regime | Opportunity score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) | 103.27 | +11.4% | +11.6% | +67.1% | Bull | 81 (#10) |
| Copper Futures (HG1!) | 6.5075 | −4.0% | +2.7% | +27.9% | Neutral | 69 (#24) |
| Corn Futures (ZC1!) | 456.00 | −14.9% | −1.4% | +7.8% | Transition | 33 (#60) |
| Gold Futures (GC1!) | 4,008 | −7.3% | −1.1% | −3.3% | Bear | 15 (#82) |
| Wheat Futures (ZW1!) | 625.00 | −12.8% | −10.0% | +23.8% | Transition | 35 (#59) |
| Platinum Futures (PL1!) | 1,562 | −11.1% | −2.5% | −1.9% | Bear | 9 (#87) |
| Silver Futures (SI1!) | 53.95 | −16.9% | −6.9% | +10.9% | Bear | 15 (#84) |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) | 2.6400 | −13.1% | −9.4% | −19.6% | Bear | 7 (#89) |
Signals and alerts in Commodities & metals
- Alert (high severity): Corn Futures – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Wheat Futures – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Platinum Futures – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): Gold Futures – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): Silver Futures – Extreme volatility
- Alert (high severity): WTI Crude Oil Futures – Extreme volatility
- Bearish (emerging, strength 90): Corn Futures breaks below its 200-day average
- Bearish (emerging, strength 88): Wheat Futures breaks below its 200-day average
- Bearish (confirmed, strength 88): Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures breaks below its 200-day average
| Strategy | Asset | Return a year | Max fall | Sharpe | Buy & hold (return / max fall) | Current signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10-Month Moving Average Crossover | Gold Futures | 8.5% | -35% | 0.64 | 10.1% / -42% | In cash |
| 10-Month Trend Filter | Gold Futures | 7.2% | -39% | 0.56 | 10.1% / -42% | In cash |
| 12-Month Absolute Momentum | Gold Futures | 8.3% | -27% | 0.60 | 10.1% / -42% | Invested |
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Source: Sonsero Markets weekly snapshot 2026-10-25 (market data from TradingView). Scores and regimes are rules-based descriptions of market conditions, not investment advice. Past performance and backtests do not guarantee future results.