India
India: regime score, economic regime, capital flows, currency outlook and FX-adjusted returns, from the latest weekly snapshot.
Regime scorecard
Neutral regime, score −27 (Bearish tilt); accelerating economy; capital flows outflows increasing; geopolitical risk moderate. Strongest: economic momentum (+51). Weakest: capital flows (-86), market performance (-83).
| Factor | Weight | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Economic momentum | 30% | +51 |
| Capital flows & liquidity | 25% | −86 |
| Market performance | 20% | −83 |
| Geopolitical conditions | 15% | −15 |
| Valuation & stability | 10% | −17 |
IMF real GDP growth: 7.0% (2026), 7.0% (2027). Inflation 5.5%, policy rate 5.50%. Relative strength vs MSCI ACWI over 3 months: −5.0 pp. Currency (INR) score −6, 1-year outlook ↓.
Weekly brief: India opens Neutral at -27: booming growth meets record foreign outflows
Regime: Neutral (score -27, Bearish tilt), Accelerating economy – one of the fastest-growing major economies, but record foreign outflows and a falling market drag the score down.
What changed
This is the first weekly reading for India, so there is no previous score or regime to compare. The model opens at -27, ranked 12th overall. Economic momentum (+51) is the only strong factor; capital flows (-86) and market performance (-83) are the weakest.
Economy and markets
The IMF’s October 2026 outlook raised India to 7.0% growth for both FY2026 and FY2027 (7.4% for calendar 2026), against 3.1% for the world. The HSBC flash October composite PMI rose to a four-month high of 56.7, with the fastest export-order growth since June 2025. Inflation is about 5.5%, matching the 5.5% policy rate, and the 10-year yield is near 7.5%. Equities are down about 15% year to date and over a year, 5.8% below their 200-day average, and have trailed the MSCI ACWI by 5.0 points over three months and 10.4 over six. MSCI India still trades at 19.0x forward earnings, the priciest major Asian market.
Capital flows and rotation
The model reads ‘outflows increasing’, with three-month ETF flows of about -11.7% of fund size, in the Improving quadrant at the ‘economy improving’ stage. NSDL data show foreign portfolio investors withdrew INR35,861cr from equities in September and INR47,417cr in 1-12 October, taking 2026 outflows to a record INR3.08 lakh crore.
Currency
The INR score is -6, with downward one-year and three-to-five-year views. The rupee is near record lows, about 7% weaker this year, while the RBI defends it with roughly $750bn of reserves. The Reuters poll median is 97.5 per dollar in 12 months, and BofA, UOB and Barclays see 99 by September 2027. Gradual depreciation would reduce returns for USD-based investors; for EUR and GBP-based investors the size of that drag also depends on their own currency against the dollar, so check the heatmap.
Risks and what to watch
Geopolitical risk is moderate: the West Asia conflict, with Brent near $100, raises the import bill, alongside a weak rupee and high US yields. Watch the 27-28 Oct FOMC, early-November final HSBC PMIs, oil headlines and a possible first RBI rate hike in four years.
Educational information, not investment advice. Scores are model outputs, not forecasts.
Source: Sonsero Regions weekly snapshot 2026-10-25 (market data from TradingView; IMF, central bank and fund-flow research). Scores and regimes are rules-based descriptions of conditions, not investment advice.