Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa: regime score, economic regime, capital flows, currency outlook and FX-adjusted returns for South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, from the latest weekly snapshot.
Regime scorecard
Neutral regime, score −8 (Balanced); expanding economy; capital flows outflows increasing; geopolitical risk moderate. Strongest: valuation & stability (+17), economic momentum (+11). Weakest: market performance (-30), capital flows (-26).
| Factor | Weight | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Economic momentum | 30% | +11 |
| Capital flows & liquidity | 25% | −26 |
| Market performance | 20% | −30 |
| Geopolitical conditions | 15% | −5 |
| Valuation & stability | 10% | +17 |
IMF real GDP growth: 4.5% (2026), 4.7% (2027). Inflation 5.6%, policy rate 9.22%. Relative strength vs MSCI ACWI over 3 months: −0.9 pp. Currency (ZAR) score +9, 1-year outlook ↑.
Countries
| Country | Regime | Score | Economy | Capital flows | Geopolitical risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | Neutral | +29 | Accelerating | Inflows increasing | Moderate |
| Kenya | Neutral | +14 | Accelerating | Stable | Moderate |
| Cote d’Ivoire | Neutral | +11 | Expanding | Stable | Moderate |
| Ghana | Neutral | +10 | Expanding | Stable | Moderate |
| South Africa | Neutral | −24 | Slowing | Outflows increasing | Moderate |
Weekly brief: Sub-Saharan Africa starts Neutral: firmer growth, weak South African markets
Regime: Neutral (score -8, Balanced), Expanding economy – improving growth data are offset by weak South African markets and thin flow data.
What changed
This is the first weekly reading for sub-Saharan Africa, so there is no earlier score to compare. The regime is recorded as new from 25 October 2026, and the region ranks 10th of 13.
Economy and markets
The IMF raised its 2026 regional growth forecast to 4.5% (4.7% in 2027), but the picture varies widely. Nigeria was upgraded to 4.2% on better terms of trade, Côte d’Ivoire is projected at 6.0% and Ghana at 5.7%, while South Africa lags at about 1%. September PMIs improved in Nigeria (56.4), Kenya (51.3), Ghana (51.3) and South Africa (50.7). Markets are weaker. The regional benchmark fell 10.9% over the past month, is down 4.8% year to date and has trailed MSCI ACWI by 0.9 points over three months and 11.6 points over six. Valuations are low, with MSCI South Africa on 8.7x forward earnings.
Capital flows and rotation
Outflows are increasing (flow factor -26). Regional ETF flows equal about -5.8% of fund size over three months, and -22% for South Africa. Nigeria is the exception, with portfolio inflows of $7.09bn in Q2 and reserves of $54.61bn. Flow data for the other markets are limited. The region is at the "economy improving" stage in the improving quadrant.
Currency
The currency score is +9 (ZAR reference). The 1-year view is firmer and the 3-5-year view is volatile. Gold, a new 3% inflation target and high real rates support the rand. The naira is backed by oil and reserves, while the cedi is under pressure, down about 10% this year. The CFA franc (XOF) is fixed to the euro. For USD and GBP-based investors, gains in ZAR and NGN could add to returns but bring high volatility. EUR-based investors face little currency risk on XOF while the peg holds.
Risks and what to watch
Geopolitical risk is moderate. Higher oil and fertiliser import costs from the Gulf war and sovereign debt service are the main pressures. Dates to watch: the FOMC on 27-28 October, October PMIs around 2-5 November, Ghana’s 2027 budget in mid-November, the SARB decision around 19 November and the CBN meeting in late November.
Educational information, not investment advice. Scores are model outputs, not forecasts.
Source: Sonsero Regions weekly snapshot 2026-10-25 (market data from TradingView; IMF, central bank and fund-flow research). Scores and regimes are rules-based descriptions of conditions, not investment advice.