Risk-Off Monitor
Market-wide stress indicators (volatility, credit, breadth, rates and the dollar) plus asset-level risk alerts.
Overall market regime: Neutral (composite −7)
Composite score -7 on a -100 (risk-off) to +100 (risk-on) scale, averaging volatility, credit, breadth, rates, dollar, safe-haven and risk-appetite signals. Risk-off is a portfolio-wide environment; individual assets can still trend higher.
| Indicator | Value | Signal | Threshold | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 implied volatility (VIX) | 19.44 pts | Neutral | <16 risk-on | 16-22 neutral | >22 risk-off | The VIX measures options-implied 30-day volatility on the S&P 500. It closed at 19.44, +37.3% over the past month. |
| Change in VIX over 1 month | 37.3 % | Risk-Off | <-10% risk-on | >+20% risk-off | A fast rise in implied volatility signals investors are paying up for protection, an early sign of stress. |
| Nasdaq-100 implied volatility vs 200-day average (VXN) | 15.5 % | Risk-Off | <-10% risk-on | >+15% risk-off | VXN at 28.30 versus a 200-day average of 24.50. Elevated tech volatility often leads broader drawdowns. |
| High-yield vs Treasuries, 3-month return gap (HYG – IEF) | -0.7 pp | Neutral | >+1pp risk-on | <-1pp risk-off | High-yield bonds returned -2.8% vs -2.1% for 7-10 year Treasuries over 3 months. Junk underperforming Treasuries is a proxy for widening credit spreads. |
| Equity breadth: share of tracked stocks & equity ETFs above their 200-day average | 61 % of assets | Risk-On | >=60% risk-on | <40% risk-off | Healthy rallies are broad. Falling breadth while indices hold up is a classic late-cycle warning. |
| US sectors above their 200-day average | 6 of 11 | Neutral | >=8 risk-on | <=4 risk-off | Counts the 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs trading above their long-term trend line. |
| S&P 500 distance from 200-day average (SPY) | 4.5 % | Neutral | Bull regime risk-on | Bear regime risk-off | SPY is in a Neutral regime: close 759.97, 50-day 767.81, 200-day 727.01. |
| US yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) | 0.31 pp | Neutral | >+0.5pp risk-on | <0 (inverted) risk-off | 10-year yield 5.00% vs 2-year 4.69%. An inverted curve has historically preceded recessions. |
| US 10-year yield change over 1 month | 6 bp | Neutral | <-25bp risk-on | >+25bp risk-off | Sharp rises in long-term yields tighten financial conditions and pressure equity valuations. |
| UK 10-year gilt yield change over 1 month | 16 bp | Neutral | <-25bp risk-on | >+25bp risk-off | UK 10-year gilt yield at 5.37%. Gilt sell-offs feed through to UK mortgage rates and sterling assets. |
| US dollar index change over 1 month (DXY) | 0.63 % | Neutral | <-2% risk-on | >+2% risk-off | A rapidly strengthening dollar signals a global flight to safety and tightens conditions for emerging markets. |
| Gold vs S&P 500, 3-month return gap | -4.03 pp | Neutral | <-5pp risk-on | >+5pp risk-off | Gold -1.1% vs S&P 500 +2.9% over 3 months. A defensive bid for gold over equities signals caution. |
| Copper vs gold, 3-month return gap (growth barometer) | 3.83 pp | Risk-On | >+3pp risk-on | <-3pp risk-off | Copper +2.7% vs gold -1.1% over 3 months. Industrial metals beating gold points to growth optimism. |
| US small caps vs large caps, 3-month return gap (RTY – ES) | -8.37 pp | Risk-Off | >+2pp risk-on | <-2pp risk-off | Russell 2000 futures -5.6% vs S&P 500 futures +2.8% over 3 months. Small caps lead when investors embrace risk. |
| Bitcoin trend (speculative risk appetite) | 22.8 % | Neutral | Bull regime risk-on | Bear regime risk-off | Bitcoin is in a Neutral regime, +22.8% over 3 months and -27.7% over 1 year. |
Asset risk alerts this week
- Alert (high severity): Cardano – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Corn Futures – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Wheat Futures – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): HSBC – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Alphabet – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Developed ex-US (EFA) – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Europe (VGK) – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): JPMorgan Equity Premium Income (JEPI) – Broke below its 200-day average this week
- Alert (high severity): Broadcom – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): Platinum Futures – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): Gold Futures – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): US Communication Services (XLC) – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): China Large-Cap (FXI) – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): Prologis – Bear trend accelerating
- Alert (high severity): Dogecoin – Extreme volatility
- Alert (high severity): Silver Futures – Extreme volatility
- Alert (high severity): XRP – Extreme volatility
- Alert (high severity): Solana – Extreme volatility
- Alert (high severity): Avalanche – Extreme volatility
- Alert (high severity): Ethereum – In a bear-market drawdown from its 52-week high
- Alert (high severity): BNB – In a bear-market drawdown from its 52-week high
- Alert (high severity): WTI Crude Oil Futures – Extreme volatility
- Alert (high severity): Bitcoin – In a bear-market drawdown from its 52-week high
- Alert (high severity): Tesla – In a bear-market drawdown from its 52-week high
- Alert (moderate severity): Meta Platforms – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): S&P 500 (SPY) – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): E-mini S&P 500 Futures – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): USD/JPY – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): USD/CAD – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): United Kingdom (EWU) – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): US Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – Broke below its 50-day average this week
- Alert (moderate severity): EUR/GBP – Oversold under selling pressure
Source: Sonsero Markets weekly snapshot 2026-10-25 (market data from TradingView). Scores and regimes are rules-based descriptions of market conditions, not investment advice. Past performance and backtests do not guarantee future results.